There’s been a lot of recession talk over the past couple of years. And that may leave you worried we’re headed for a repeat of what we saw back in 2008. Here’s a look at the latest expert projections to show you why that isn’t going to happen.  

According to Jacob Channel, Senior Economist at LendingTree, the economy’s pretty strong:

“At least right now, the fundamentals of the economy, despite some hiccups, are doing pretty good. While things are far from perfect, the economy is probably doing better than people want to give it credit for.”

That might be why a recent survey from the Wall Street Journal shows only 39% of economists think there’ll be a recession in the next year. That’s way down from 61% projecting a recession just one year ago (see graph below):

Most experts believe there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. One reason why is the current unemployment rate. Let’s compare where we are now with historical data from Macrotrends, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), and Trading Economics. When we do, it’s clear the unemployment rate today is still very low (see graph below):

The orange bar shows the average unemployment rate since 1948 is about 5.7%. The red bar shows that right after the financial crisis in 2008, when the housing market crashed, the unemployment rate was up to 8.3%. Both of those numbers are much larger than the unemployment rate this January (shown in blue).

But will the unemployment rate go up? To answer that, look at the graph below. It uses data from that same Wall Street Journal survey to show what the experts are projecting for unemployment over the next three years compared to the long-term average (see graph below):

As you can see, economists don’t expect the unemployment rate to even come close to the long-term average over the next three years – much less the 8.3% we saw when the market last crashed.

Still, if these projections are correct, there will be people who lose their jobs next year. Anytime someone’s out of work, that’s a tough situation, not just for the individual, but also for their friends and loved ones. But the big question is: will enough people lose their jobs to create a flood of foreclosures that could crash the housing market?

Looking ahead, projections show the unemployment rate will likely stay below the 75-year average. That means you shouldn't expect a wave of foreclosures that would impact the housing market in a big way.

Bottom Line

Most experts now think we won't have a recession in the next year. They also don't expect a big jump in the unemployment rate. That means you don’t need to fear a flood of foreclosures that would cause the housing market to crash.

Going into 2023, there was a lot of talk about a possible recession that would cause the housing market to crash. Some in the media were even forecasting home prices would drop by as much as 10-20%—and that might have made you feel a bit unsure about buying a home.

But here’s what actually happened: home prices went up more than usual. Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices, explains:

“Looking back at the year, 2023 appears to have exceeded average annual home price gains over the past 35 years.”

To put last year’s growth into context, the graph below uses data from Freddie Mac on how home prices have changed each year going back to 1980. The dotted line shows the long-term average for appreciation:

The big takeaway? Home prices almost always go up.

As an article from Forbes says:

“. . . the U.S. real estate market has a long and reliable history of increasing in value over time.”

In fact, since 1980, the only time home prices dropped was during the housing market crash (shown in red in the graph above). Fortunately, the market today isn’t like it was in 2008. For starters, there aren’t enough available homes to meet buyer demand right now. On top of that, homeowners have a tremendous amount of equity, so they’re on much stronger footing than they were back then. That means there won’t be a wave of foreclosures that causes prices to fall.

The fact that home values went up every single year except those four in red is why owning a home can be one of the smartest moves you can make. When you’re a homeowner, you own something that typically becomes more valuable over time. And as your home’s value appreciates, your net worth grows. 

So, if you’re financially stable and prepared for the costs and expenses of homeownership, buying a home might make a lot of sense for you.

Bottom Line

Home prices almost always go up over time. That makes buying a home a smart move, if you’re ready and able. Let’s connect to talk about your goals and what’s available in our area.

Thinking about selling your house and wondering if now’s a good time to do it? Here’s what you need to know. Even though the number of homes for sale has been growing this year, there still aren’t enough homes on the market for all the buyers who want to buy.

So, what does that mean for you? To keep it simple, it means it’s still a seller’s market. Here’s how it works:

• A neutral market is when supply and demand is balanced. Basically, there are enough homes to meet buyer demand based on the current sales pace, and home prices hold fairly steady.
• A buyer’s market is when there are more homes for sale than there are buyers. When that happens, buyers have more negotiation power because sellers are willing to make compromises to close the deal. In a buyer’s market, sellers may have to do price cuts to re-ignite interest in their home, and prices may go down. But we haven’t seen this for years since there are so few homes available to buy.
• In a seller’s market, it’s just the opposite. When the supply of homes for sale is as low as it is right now, it’s much harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. That creates increased competition among purchasers which can lead to more bidding wars. And if buyers know they may be entering a bidding war, they’re going to do their best to submit a very attractive offer upfront. This could drive the final sale price of your house up.

The graph below uses data from the National Association of Realtors to show just how deep into seller’s market territory we still are today:

What Does This Mean for You?

The market is still working in your favor. If you lean on an agent for advice on how to get your house list ready and how to price it competitively, it should get a lot of attention from eager buyers. That means you’ll likely get multiple offers and see your house sell quickly and for top dollar. As a recent article from Ramsey Solutions explains:

“A seller’s market is when demand for homes is higher than the supply of homes. And that’s still the case right now. If you’re planning to sell your house, you can expect to sell it fairly quickly for close to your asking price—as long as your asking price is realistic for the current market.”

Bottom Line

Today’s housing market still favors sellers. If you’re ready to sell your house, let’s connect so you can start making your moves.

The Spring real estate market near Fort Meade is always a sweet spot for home selling?  Why is that?  Well, we're in a prime military market and PCS season generally starts in February and continues through September.  With Fort Meade as the areas largest employer, we're talking thousands of military and government homeowners who come up for orders and are looking to sell their homes as well as homebuyers to match.

Now is a great time to prep for peak season with preparation to sell your home including picking a great local agent to help you out.  

We've got all the tips and tricks you need to get your home market ready.  Follow The Roskelly Team for top Fort Meade real estate news.  We've got our finger on the pulse of the Fort Meade market!  EHO

Well February brought a nice little increase in inventory. Even though demand was high, properties were selling right at 100% of asking price.  Interestingly, there were no crazy high bids on any of these homes.  A sure indication that even with low inventory, homebuyers are being a bit more judicious about how they are spending their dollars.  Since Crofton is one of the most popular cities in Anne Arundel county, we know that other areas followed suit.
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Properties were on the market an average of 15 days, but in reality, the hottest homes were selling in a day or two.  

We live, work, and play in Crofton and have been local real estate experts for over two decades.  If you're thinking about listing your Crofton home for sale, The Roskelly Team has a long history of hitting all of the market highs with our in-depth marketing plan.  We work hard to make sure you get the terms you want when you sell.  Need a rent back, a specific closing date, or the best guidance on preparing your home for the market?  We've got you covered!

Thinking of buying a home in Crofton, MD?  We've got you covered there too. Start your home search online with us today and we'll fight for your best deal!  EHO

So, you’re thinking of buying a home near Fort Meade MD? Whether you already live in the area, or are expecting PCS orders to the base, there are key items you’ll need to attend to.  And with the help of a trusted real estate agent / advisor, you can navigate this process with ease and get the keys to your very own home at the settlement table. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer, or a seasoned pro, key day is the best! 

Choosing An Agent
First things first. You’re going to want to choose an experienced agent to guide you through this process.  Someone that has been through these steps many times as there are possible pit falls and a seasoned real estate professional will help you avoid or navigate those challenges. It’s sometimes tempting to go with a friend who is just licensed, but really give that some thought and don’t be afraid to ask for references, question the process, and decide if the agent you’re thinking about is a really good fit for you from personality to capability.  You’ll likely be spending 45 – 60 days or more working with that agent. Once you’ve chosen an agent, they’ll do an initial consultation to make sure they fully understand your goals and get you started on the homebuying process.

Choosing a Lender & Loan Option
This isn’t as easy as it sounds. Though a simple online search will yield you limitless options, your best bet is to ask your real estate agent who they recommend. Real estate agents understand that rates are a top consideration, and they are going to make sure you’re aligned with a lender that can take care of you in that department.  But there’s much more than that.  In a competitive market, a pre-approval letter from a well-known LOCAL lender can make your offer rise to the top of the pile. Why, you ask? Because listing agents want not just a good deal for their sellers, they want to know that the deal will close without complications. You’ll need to invest time working with your lender to submit documentation to get you to settlement and your agent also wants you to have a smooth transaction.  Real estate agents do not profit from lender recommendations.  They are made with great thought and only to ensure you have a successful transaction.  Your lender will discuss financing options with you to determine which loan program is best for your circumstances.

Identifying Your Home
Understandings what you’re looking for in a home is key to the success of your purchase.  In the Fort Meade area, you have many housing options including condos, townhomes, and single-family homes.  Condos come with the least maintenance, but in addition to your mortgage payment, you will have a monthly fee to cover that maintenance.  That fee is not tax deductible. Townhomes are a top option in this area for low maintenance, extra space, and lots of glam features at prices below single-family homes.  Single family homes in the area range from basic to glam and will give you more privacy, more maintenance, and more style options. Identifying these basics will get your home search off on the right foot.

Online home shopping
A great agent provides you with the best tools to connect you to them, and the freshest new listings.  They assist with your search, follow what you’re looking at and use that information to fine-tune your search so that when you’re ready to look at homes, we can make that time productive and see the homes that best fit your needs. Beware of agents that tell you to look on Zillow or other sites that don’t necessarily provide the best local market data.  That’s a cop out in the responsibility an agent should have when you entrust them with your home search.

Viewing Homes
This is easily the best part of the homebuying process.  We are on the road and looking at those homes you viewed online, or that your agent located for you off-market.  It’s time to find “the one” and make an offer. 

Making an Offer
All offers are not created equally.  Once you’ve identified a home you want to make an offer for, your agent will have a discussion with the seller’s agent to find out if there are any key items that are important to the seller.  Is there something you can include in your offer that would sweeten the deal for the seller?  Sometimes they need a rentback while they are waiting to move, or a specific closing date, or flexibility to find a new home.  A great agent will ferret out those details and present them to you so that you can decide if any of those items are acceptable to you to include in your offer. Your agent will also pull detailed comparable sales data from the MLS to make sure that the property price is in line with norms, and the range in which it is likely to appraise.  If you’re relying on financing, the appraisal is critical to the process as that is the maximum amount you can borrow on the property.  You’ll decide what inspections are important to you and if you’ll be doing them for informational purposes only, or if you’d like the opportunity to negotiate repairs with the seller.  Will you want the right to walk away without penalty if the inspection results are not satisfactory?  How much of an earnest money deposit do you feel comfortable putting up to guarantee your performance?  These and other issues will be discussed in detail and used to write a formal offer to purchase to present to your seller.  In a competitive market, you don’t always get the first home you make an offer on.  But a great real estate agent will give you the best chance with a well written offer.  And, they’ll do that again until you’ve secured your home and are ready to move on to the next step.

Inspections & Due Diligence
Once you’ve “won” the house, your contract will be submitted to the title company of your choosing to begin the process of checking the title and getting you ready for settlement.  Your contract will outline what inspections you will be doing, and the timeframe you have to complete those inspections.  If you’ve chosen inspections for informational purposes only, you’ll have a set time to decide if, based on the inspection results, you want to move forward with the purchase.   If you’ve chosen inspections with the right to negotiate repairs, once you’ve completed the inspection, you’ll have a list of items on your inspection report to review and consider if you are OK with taking on those issues, or if they are important enough to request the seller intervene with repairs.  Your agent will write up any repairs that you have requested and present that to the listing agent for review with the sellers.  This is generally written with the seller having 3 days to respond.  The seller will approve all repairs (and you’re done negotiating), some repairs and you’ll have to decide if you’re OK with what they aren’t doing, or no repairs.  If they aren’t doing all of the requested repairs, it is then up to you as the buyer to make a decision to move forward or cancel the transaction.  As long as that is done within the contract time period, you should be entitled to the return of your full deposit.

During this time you’ll also have an appraisal, survey, and likely a pest inspection with your agent making sure the deadlines are met.

Preparing For Settlement
Once all of the details above are taken care of, you and the Seller will choose a date, time, and location to sign paperwork.  Your lender and agent will review your closing statement with you and make sure you understand each line item, ensure it matches the original estimate your lender provided.  They will make sure you are comfortable with this document before you sit down to sign. 

Final Walk-through
As a homebuyer, you have the right to do a final walk-through inspection of your home prior to settlement.  According to the Maryland contract, you have the right to receive the property in broom swept condition and in substantially the same condition as it was on the day you viewed it.   The property must be delivered “broom swept clean” You’re looking for any substantial changes to the condition of the home since you purchased it.  Let’s say the seller moved a couch and there is a hole in the carpet, or the seller took the refrigerator that was to be included in the contract, or the movers damaged a wall.  Those are things that need to be dealt with.  And on closing day, that doesn’t give the seller time to respond with a repair or correction, but your agent will make sure you are fairly compensated for the damage or missing items through an allowance at settlement. 

Closing Day
On closing day, all of the work above is done and you are ready to settle and get the keys to your new home.  Your agent has guided you home with all contractual obligations met.

Throughout every step of the home buying journey, a knowledgeable, dedicated, real estate agent will be your advocate, advisor, guide and sometimes your counselor to turn your dream of homeownership into a reality.  Choose wisely!

You can expect the homebuying process to take 30 – 60 days in total.  The amount of time you spend locating and contracting on your home is the biggest variable.  Once you’ve found your home and secured a contract on it, the process takes about 30 days to settle.

The Roskelly Team has over 20 years of local real estate experience in the Fort Meade market.  And, we're military spouses, veterans, and BRAT's who understand the stressors of a PCS move.  We'll work hard to make finding your new Fort Meade home the easiest part of your move!

It's hard to believe we've said goodbye to February already!  But here we are.  The Odenton real estate market was hopping in February with a total of 19 homes settled, 36 properties under contract and 43 actively listed homes. Tops sellers this month included Two Rivers and Piney Orchard which lead the market on number of sales due to a recent bump in inventory. Seven Oaks, which is usually a top seller had little to no inventory last month so couldn't be included here. Buyers, took advantage of lower interest rates and 36 additional properties went under contract.  Get the full market report at the link below.

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ACTIVE HOMES FOR SALE IN ODENTON MD

If you're thinking of making a move to Odenton, or are relocating to Fort Meade, The Roskelly Team would love to help.  Let's connect and talk about how we can make finding or selling your Odenton home the easiest part of your move.

We're checking in on the Piney Orchard real estate market to bring you the latest list of homes for sale, houses under contract, and recently sold properties.  This popular Odenton MD neighborhood is just minutes to Fort Meade and offers top notch amenities that just aren't available anywhere else in Anne Arundel county.

Home sales this month included only condos and townhomes.  We saw a buildup of inventory in the condo sector including several that are age qualified.  Those properties took our days on market up artificially as they cater to a smaller group of homebuyers.  There were no single family property sales this month.
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If you're looking for an expert to list your Piney Orchard home for sale, or need help buying a home in the neighborhood, look no further than PineyOrchardHomes.com and The Roskelly Team.  Your real estate pros since 1999.  EHO

Wondering if it still makes sense to sell your house right now? The short answer is, yes. And if you look at the current number of homes for sale, you’ll see two reasons why.

An article from Calculated Risk shows there are 15.6% more homes for sale now compared to the same week last year. That tells us inventory has grown. But going back to 2019, the last normal year in the housing market, there are nearly 40% fewer homes available now:

Here’s a breakdown of how this benefits you when you sell.

1. You Have More Options for Your Move

Are you thinking about selling because your current house is too big, too small, or because your needs have changed? If so, the year-over-year growth gives you more options for your home search. That means it may be less of a challenge to find what you’re looking for.

So, if you were holding off on selling because you were worried you weren’t going to find a home you like, this may be just the good news you needed. Partnering with a local real estate professional can help you make sure you’re up to date on the homes available in your area.

2. You Still Won’t Have Much Competition When You Sell

But to put that into perspective, even though there are more homes for sale now, there still aren’t as many as there’d be in a normal year. Remember, the data from Calculated Risk shows we’re down nearly 40% compared to 2019. And that large a deficit won't be solved overnight. As a recent article from Realtor.com explains:

“. . . the number of homes for sale and new listing activity continues to improve compared to last year. However the inventory of homes for sale still has a long journey back to pre-pandemic levels.”

For you, that means if you work with an agent to price your house right, it should still get a lot of attention from eager buyers and could sell fast.

Bottom Line

If you're a homeowner looking to sell, now's a good time. You'll have more options when buying your next home, and there's still not a ton of competition from other sellers. If you’re ready to move, let’s connect to get the ball rolling.

We've got the most up-to-date list of homes for sale near Fort Meade available on our website for you 24/7.  Today we're taking a look at the hottest new home listings in Severn MD.  As a homebuyer searching for your dream home, you'll need to be quick in this market to see the best listings. It's important to have a real estate agent who not only provides you with the best online tools to view homes, but searches with you to make sure you see the best homes first.  We can even help you connect with Sellers who may be thinking of selling their homes by marketing in the neighborhood where you want to be.  We'll get creative to make sure you're in your best home on your schedule.

The Roskelly Team has been working in the Anne Arundel County market for over two decades. When it's time to find your home in Severn, put a seasoned professional to work for you.  We'll be the fastest, negotiate the hardest, and track every detail of your sale to make sure you get those keys on time, every time.